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August 15, 2026
Partner, Chief Economist
The tailwinds behind the US economy are not just AI spending, the industrial renaissance and the One Big Beautiful Bill.
Tariff refunds have now joined the list, see chart below. Not only are tariff refunds boosting corporate earnings, they are also boosting GDP growth.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow currently points to 4.3% growth this quarter, of which we estimate roughly 0.2 percentage points come from tariff refunds.
The bottom line is that the US economy continues to be supported by a growing set of tailwinds.
The July employment report does not change that. The headline decline was driven by a 50,000 drop in local government education, reflecting school-calendar seasonals, and a 40,000 decline in leisure and hospitality as the World Cup boost rolled off. Adjusting for these two quirks in the data gives underlying job growth of close to 70,000, broadly in line with what the consensus had expected before the release.
In addition, jobless claims around 200,000 and the number of job openings rising in the past six months also point to a strong labor market.
In short, the market is underestimating how strong growth is right now. As a result, rates will stay higher for longer.
Sources: US Department of Treasury, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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