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July 30, 2026
Partner, Chief Economist
Analysis of actual Claude usage data shows workers in AI-exposed occupations are experiencing slower wage growth, while employment levels in these occupations remain unchanged, suggesting companies are capturing AI productivity gains through wage compression rather than workforce reduction.
This paper was written by Sania Edlich and me using a difference-in-differences methodology with occupation and year fixed effects across 321 matched occupations from 2015 to today. The paper is available here.
Sources: Sania Edlich and Torsten Slok
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