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July 23, 2026
Partner, Chief Economist
The chart below shows that IPOs since 2019 have underperformed the broader market over the following three years, driven by three main forces:
1) Peak valuations: The 2020–2021 wave came public at rich multiples amid zero rates, stimulus and speculative retail demand, leaving little room for gains.
2) A hostile rate regime: The Fed's hiking cycle from 2022 compressed valuations and hit the long-duration, unprofitable growth stocks that dominate IPO cohorts hardest.
3) Low quality, high bar: The boom pushed marginal companies public before they were ready while the market-adjusted benchmark was set against an index carried by a handful of mega-cap winners.
Each of these forces could persist: valuations may re-inflate in the next IPO window, rates look set to stay structurally higher than the 2010s and index returns remain concentrated in a few mega-caps that keep the relative bar high.
Note: Returns of 2023 and 2024 IPOs are shown through December 2025. Sources: Jay Ritter, Apollo Chief Economist
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