October 25, 2026

Japan Weeks (Oct. 26-30), now in its fourth year, brings global investors and asset managers together to explore the opportunities in Japan’s financial and capital markets. One of the most important themes behind that opportunity is shareholder activism, which is reshaping corporate Japan. Shareholder proposals have more than tripled since 2018, reflecting a stronger focus on governance and shareholder value, see first chart below. This is starting to translate into stronger corporate profits, with profits at Japan’s medium-sized businesses (those with capital of JPY 100 million to 1 billion) reaching historically high levels, a sign that improving profitability extends well beyond the country’s largest companies, see second and third charts.

October 24, 2026

Despite massive investments and widespread hype around artificial intelligence, the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech. Revenue per worker is rising for the Mag 7 but is flat for the S&P 493, see the first chart below. Profit margins are rising for the Mag 7 but are flat for the S&P 493, see the second chart below. And there are still no signs of AI boosting productivity growth, see the third chart below. With no impact on the bottom line, mainstream corporate America is pulling back and starting to view token spending not as a source of growth but as a cost center that weighs on margins. VC-backed companies are spending more and more on tokens, but mainstream corporate America does not need the latest model and is unwilling to pay for it. As long as agentic AI and token spending are confined to a small part of the economy, the macroeconomic effects of AI will be very limited, see the fourth and fifth charts below. The question looking ahead is whether, even as models become commoditized, mainstream corporate America can turn increasingly cheap intelligence into higher revenue growth and higher profit margins. That may be harder than it sounds. AI may be a great calculator, but in business, intelligence is mostly judgment. Judgment depends on context, and the answer varies with which human or which model you ask. Perhaps most importantly, AI does not understand accountability, trust, culture, unwritten rules, ethical trade-offs or fairness, all of which shape reputational risk and ultimately drive revenue growth and profit margins. The bottom line is that the AI story will be decided in the S&P 493, not the Mag 7, and so far, there is no evidence that revenue growth or margins are improving outside the tech sector.

October 23, 2026

The Fed survey below for the third quarter of 2026 shows that only 19% of firms report that financing costs or access to credit are constraining their investment and spending plans, while 81% report no such constraints. The bottom line is that corporate America is saying that monetary policy is not restrictive.