As average interest rates are expected to remain “higher for longer,” we believe portfolio allocations should be designed with sustained elevated rates in mind. Public equities and fixed income face challenges with narrow risk premia and spread tightening. In our view, private markets can offer attractive alternatives.
In his latest white paper, Apollo Partner and Global Wealth Strategist Alex Wright discusses areas of opportunities. Specifically, we focus on private equity secondaries, corporate direct lending, asset-backed finance, and other areas. Replacing a portion of public equity and fixed-income allocations with private assets can diversify portfolios and enhance risk-adjusted returns.
Key Takeaways
- Even if the Fed embarks on an easing cycle in September—as we now expect—we believe that average interest rates will remain relatively “higher for longer.” If so, we believe that portfolio allocations today should be designed with the expectation of sustained elevated rates in mind. But where can investors find risk premia?
- High levels of concentration and still lofty valuations (despite recent sell-offs) have combined to narrow the risk premium in public equities. Meanwhile, in public fixed income, still tight spreads have made it difficult to find attractive yields at, in our view, reasonable risk levels.
- We believe that private markets can offer an alternative to muted risk premia in public markets.
- Although higher rates pose some challenges to traditional “growth” buyout private equity (especially those not focused on purchase price and, therefore, more dependent on multiple expansion to meet potential return targets), we see attractive risk-adjusted returns in the secondaries markets.
- On private credit, we believe that an expanding and increasingly diverse addressable market can be a source of attractive risk premia, with opportunities in large corporate direct lending, asset-backed finance, and other areas.
- We believe replacing a portion of public equity and fixed-income allocations with private assets has the potential to add sources of attractive risk premia today, diversify portfolios, and enhance risk-adjusted returns over time.
We have also recorded a podcast with Torsten on this topic. Listen to it here.
Tags
The information herein is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.
Important Disclosure Information
This presentation is for educational purposes only and should not be treated as research. This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).
The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are the views and opinions of the author(s) of the White Paper. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Further, Apollo and its affiliates may have positions (long or short) or engage in securities transactions that are not consistent with the information and views expressed in this presentation. There can be no assurance that an investment strategy will be successful. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior or future performance of any particular investment which may differ materially, and should not be relied upon as such. Target allocations contained herein are subject to change. There is no assurance that the target allocations will be achieved, and actual allocations may be significantly different than that shown here. This presentation does not constitute an offer of any service or product of Apollo. It is not an invitation by or on behalf of Apollo to any person to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy, and shall not form the basis of, nor may it accompany nor form part of, any right or contract to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Nothing herein should be taken as investment advice or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.
Hyperlinks to third-party websites in this presentation are provided for reader convenience only. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed herein will continue. Unless otherwise noted, information included herein is presented as of the dates indicated. This presentation is not complete and the information contained herein may change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update the presentation to account for such changes. Apollo has not made any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to fairness, correctness, accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the information contained herein, and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability therefore. The information contained herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information contained herein, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients.
Certain information contained herein may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such information. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 (“S&P 500”) Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies by market value.
Additional information may be available upon request.
Market Insight | View from Apollo
Capturing Risk Premia: A Practitioner’s Perspective with Apollo Partner Matt O’Mara
In a new episode of The View from Apollo podcast, Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok and Matt O’Mara, partner in Apollo’s Insurance Solutions Group, discuss how the structured nature of private market transactions can help align risk levels and returns, and how that dynamic is helping risk premia hold up in private markets.
In a new episode of The View from Apollo podcast, Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok speaks with Alex Wright, Global Wealth Strategist in Apollo’s Client and Product Solutions Group, about their views on where to find attractive risk premia at a time of elevated interest rates and lofty public market valuations. This episode also tackles a top-of-mind question: Is the private credit market growing too fast?
While the Fed’s rate hikes have reigned in growth, especially among over-levered consumers, corporates, and banks, the easing of financial conditions since the “Fed pivot” in December continues to offset the effect of higher rates. For the rest of 2024, we expect economic growth to be higher than consensus and inflation to stay above the Fed’s target. We see no Fed cuts in 2024.
