May 31, 2026
NYC ferry ridership continues to grow, driven both by post-pandemic demand and massive system improvements, see chart below. Ridership has hit record levels even as fares have increased, and waterfront neighborhoods like Greenpoint and Williamsburg have continued to grow, drawing more commuters to ferry routes.
Note: Weekly boardings indexed to 2019 average (=100). 52-week rolling average applied to remove seasonality. Sources: New York City Economic Development Corporation (NYCEDC), Apollo Chief Economist
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Private credit is having its TRACE moment, and as transparency infrastructure matures, the same forces that unlocked liquidity in public credit markets are now compressing trading frictions in private credit, see chart below.
Note: FINRA TRACE reporting began in July 2002. Indicator shown is transaction-cost compression, not volume growth. Sources: For TRACE path: Bessembinder, Maxwell & Venkataraman, Journal of Financial Economics, 2006; Apollo Chief Economist
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The chart below shows the weekly ADP employment data, and there is zero evidence of job losses because of AI.
Instead, many firms are hiring AI implementation experts, and the data center buildout is putting upward pressure on salaries for AI experts and on prices of semiconductors, equipment and energy.
The bottom line is that the AI spending boom is stoking both employment and inflation.
As a result, nonfarm payrolls for May could come in significantly higher than the 95,000 expected by the consensus.
It is Jevons paradox playing out in real time: cheaper technology is creating more demand and more jobs.
Sources: ADP, Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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May 28, 2026
The chart book available here looks at the impact of AI on the economy and financial markets. I will be walking through these slides tonight at the Odd Lots Live event in Manhattan.
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Normally, when interest rates rise, spending that requires financing slows. This is what we are seeing for housing and autos. Both those sectors are very sensitive to higher rates.
But the data center buildout is different. It doesn’t matter what the Fed does. There is FOMO among hyperscalers, and AI spending is not sensitive to higher interest rates.
In fact, despite the move higher in rates in recent months, the consensus forecast for capex in 2027 continues to rise, see chart below.
In other words, there are no signs that the market is expecting a slowdown in AI capex next year.
Combined with strong growth from another interest rate-insensitive source, namely the One Big Beautiful Bill, the bottom line is that rates can continue to move higher because rate hikes are not slowing the economy and inflation, as the textbook would have predicted.
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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The number of publicly listed companies keeps declining, and there are now more ways to trade the market than there are stocks in the market, see chart below.
Sources: ICI, WFE, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
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May 25, 2026
Front-end rates are under upward pressure because inflation is higher for longer.
The belly of the curve is seeing upward pressure on yields because of hyperscaler issuance.
And long-end rates are moving higher because of more Treasury supply and less Fed demand.
The bottom line is that three distinct forces are pushing rates higher across the curve, and investors should position for a persistently higher rate environment.
Sources: FRB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
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Chips go into virtually everything manufactured, including cars, appliances, industrial equipment and phones. When manufacturers plan to ramp up production, they order semiconductors first, often 6-12 months in advance due to long lead times. Chip demand therefore anticipates broader manufacturing demand.
Sources: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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Locked-in mortgage rates are keeping homeowners in place and driving a surge in renovation spending, see chart below.
Sources: US Census Bureau, Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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May 22, 2026
The S&P 500 IT sector's share of total index capex has surged to a record-high 35%, as hyperscalers race to build out AI infrastructure at unprecedented scale, see chart below.
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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