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July 22, 2026
Partner, Chief Economist
Tanker crossings through the Strait of Hormuz have declined again, and refining crack spreads are widening sharply as constrained crude oil supplies prevent refineries from boosting throughput to meet steady demand for gasoline and diesel.
The real tail risk emerges if inventories at critical nodes like airports or power plants suddenly run dry, triggering non-linear cascading damage.
Edward Fishman's Chokepoints thesis explains the dynamic: geopolitical leverage concentrates not in reserves, but in the narrow passages through which the world's oil actually flows.
Our chart book, available here, does a deeper dive into energy demand and supply dynamics around the Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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