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July 11, 2026
Partner, Chief Economist
Hyperscaler debt issuance continues to grow, reshaping dynamics across financial markets. This chart book tracks the AI trade across hyperscaler equity prices, credit spreads, CDS and earnings expectations, bringing together the signals that matter most as markets weigh the pace and payoff of AI investments. For more, see here.
Note: 7 to 11 year maturity. Sources: ICE BofA Indices, Apollo Chief Economist
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Note: Percentage calculated as (forward earnings / cyclically adjusted earnings -1). Cyclically adjusted earnings is the 10-year average of real earnings series from Robert Shiller. Sources: Bloomberg, Robert Shiller, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Note: The Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index measures the effective cost of using large language models (LLMs), expressed as the price per million tokens. A rising index indicates higher spending on AI model usage, while a falling index suggests declining inference costs. The UBS Hyperscalers Basket Index tracks the performance of the largest US-listed cloud infrastructure companies supporting AI workloads. The basket is equally weighted and rebalanced semi-annually. Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Note: *RMBS shown excluding fed purchases and bills, *Direct lending includes gross originations, and 2026 is annualized. Sources: MS, Barclays, PitchBook, Apollo Analysts, Apollo Chief Economist
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