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A liability management exercise (LME) is when a borrower restructures existing debt to improve their financial position, typically by extending maturities, reducing interest costs or avoiding default.
As the Fed began raising rates in 2022, LMEs increased as companies faced higher borrowing costs, see chart below.
That trend is now reversing. Over the past nine months, LMEs have declined.
The bottom line is that there are no signs of a full-blown credit cycle, and the economy remains resilient, supported by the AI boom and the One Big Beautiful Bill.
Note: LME: Liability management exercise. Sources: PitchBook LCD, Apollo Chief Economist
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Financial Markets & Risk Dynamics
Torsten
Slok
April 17, 2026
Hedge Fund Leverage in Treasuries at Record Highs
Hedge funds own a record-high 8% of US Treasuries, and with combined repo and prime brokerage borrowing exceeding $6 trillion, any forced unwind of these leveraged positions could send shockwaves through global fixed income markets. For more, see bullet point number 5 here.
Note: Calculated as long US Treasury exposure minus long US Treasury futures divided by US marketable debt outstanding. Sources: Office of Financial Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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Breaking down business applications into value and growth companies reveals a widening divergence, likely driven by the proliferation of AI-enabled startups, as large language models dramatically lower the barriers to entrepreneurship. For more, see also here.
Note: Growth includes information, professional services, healthcare & social assistance, educational services, arts & entertainment. Value includes retail trade, finance & insurance, utilities, mining, manufacturing, transportation & warehousing, construction, real estate, wholesale trade, accommodation & food services, administrative & support, other services, management of companies, agriculture. Sources: US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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Financial Markets & Risk Dynamics
Torsten
Slok
April 15, 2026
AI Is Reshaping Credit Market Composition
Tech’s share of the investment-grade index has risen from 1.9% in 2006 to 10.7% today, with similar gains in high-yield and leveraged loans, see chart below.
The bottom line is that AI-related sectors now represent a growing share of credit markets.
Sources: Nick Meyer, JPM, Apollo Chief Economist
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Global & Geopolitical Developments
Torsten
Slok
April 14, 2026
Middle East Conflict: Impact on Credit Markets
The chart below assesses the severity of the Middle East conflict's impact across various segments of credit markets.
Note: Red = Negative, Yellow = Moderate, Gray = Non-material, Green = Positive. Sources: Moody’s ratings, Apollo Chief Economist
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The price of natural diamonds has fallen more than 50% since 2022, and is now at its lowest level on record, see chart below.
Note: Bloomberg: DIAMINDX. The index represents the market value (in USD per standardized coin) of a fungible basket of natural diamonds, each coin initially containing $5,000 worth of diamonds at launch in March 2021. It reflects the wholesale diamond market's aggregate value and should not be interpreted as the spot price of individual diamonds. Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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We are in the midst of an AI revolution, and the CFO Survey below shows the many channels through which business managers expect AI to have an impact on firm outcomes.
CFOs expect the biggest impacts to be on decision speed, output per worker and time spent on high value–added tasks, with employment essentially unchanged.
Note: Question asks for Likert scale options that are mapped to percentage outcomes (i.e., increased moderately, 5.1 to 10%). Above chart uses midpoint of ranges provided and +/-5% above/below highest/lowest options to calculate numeric averages across respondents. Sources: The CFO Survey, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Apollo Chief Economist
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Macroeconomic Indicators & Trends
Torsten
Slok
April 11, 2026
Tech Valuations Back to Pre-AI Boom Levels
The chart below compares the forward P/E ratios for the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 Information Technology sector.
Tech valuations have compressed from 40x to 20x, and we are back at levels last seen before the AI boom began.
Note: The companies listed represent the 10 largest constituents in the S&P 500 Information Technology index by market capitalization: NVIDIA Corp, Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Broadcom Inc, Oracle Corp, Micron Technology Inc, Palantir Technologies Inc, Advanced Micro Devices Inc, Cisco Systems Inc, and Applied Materials Inc. Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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Macroeconomic Indicators & Trends
Torsten
Slok
April 10, 2026
Almost Half of American Households Have No Retirement Savings
Nearly half of working-age Americans don’t have a retirement account, with the shortfall most acute among younger, less-educated and lower-income workers, see chart below and here.
Sources: AARP, Apollo Chief Economist
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Ground beef prices are rising, see chart below. The US cattle herd remains historically tight because of years of drought and high feed costs, and this has kept slaughter availability constrained and pushed live cattle costs higher. Resilient consumer demand and elevated feed, labor and energy costs are reinforcing the move at retail.
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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