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July 14, 2026
Partner, Chief Economist
To gauge how much AI affects a job, researchers rate it from 0 to 1 based on how many of its tasks could be, or already are, done with AI. The closer to 1, the more exposed the job.
The trouble is that the studies doing this quantification agree for low-exposure jobs like hairdressers and dancers. But for the high-exposure jobs everyone actually worries about, like tax preparers, telemarketers and mathematicians, they disagree wildly, see chart below.
So the jobs most likely to be called "at risk" are the ones we understand least. These roles tend to involve many different tasks, and while AI can do some, others are hard to automate, which is exactly why the measures disagree.
The Yale Budget Lab came to a similar conclusion here, and my colleague Sania Edlich and I will keep digging into this in upcoming Sparks. For more, see also here.
Note: Academic studies used: Massenkoff and McCrory (2026), Felten et al. (2021), Eisfeldt et al. (2023), Eloundou et al. (2024), Tomlinson et al. (2025). Source: Apollo Chief Economist
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