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May 17, 2026
Partner, Chief Economist
The chart below shows that G7 government bond yields have surged to their highest levels in more than 20 years, driven by:
1) renewed inflationary pressure from elevated energy prices as the Middle East conflict disrupts global oil supply,
2) persistently large government deficits requiring ever-increasing bond issuance,
3) the end of central bank quantitative easing with the Fed balance sheet potentially shrinking, and
4) investors demanding higher term premiums and inflation premiums amid deglobalization and increased geopolitical fragmentation.
With no clear resolution in sight on any of these fronts, the era of artificially suppressed yields appears firmly behind us.
In short, rates will stay higher for longer, and investors should plan accordingly.
Note: Maturity is 10 years and higher. Sources: ICE BofAML, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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