Creating a Recession to Lower Long Rates Is Not a Good Idea

About the Author

Torsten Slok

Partner, Chief Economist

If the US enters a recession, long-term interest rates are likely to go down, and it would be cheaper for the US government to refinance existing government debt.

However, the chart below shows that the interest payments saved if interest rates decline by two percentage points would be more than offset by the deterioration in government finances associated with a recession.

Specifically, if interest rates decline by two percentage points, the US government would save around $500 billion in annual interest payments. But if the US enters a recession, the government will have lower tax collections and pay more in unemployment benefits, and the historical deepening of the budget deficit during recessions of around 4% of GDP would correspond to an additional $1.3 trillion erosion of US government finances measured in 2025 dollars.

The bottom line is that it is not possible to improve the budget deficit by creating a recession because during a recession government finances would deteriorate by double the amount saved in interest payments, see chart below.

The negative impact of the budget deficit widening during a recession far outweighs the positive impact of a two-percentage point decline in rates — Note: Assuming a decline in interest rates by two percentage points relative to current CBO assumption resulting in $568 billion interest expense savings on Federal debt. Fiscal deficit rising by 4.4% GDP on average in the past recessions since 1968. Sources: US Treasury, CBO, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

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Creating a Recession to Lower Long Rates Is Not a Good Idea

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