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November 03, 2026
Partner, Chief Economist
Nominal GDP growth is currently solid at around 6%, while S&P 500 earnings growth has surged to nearly 40% YoY. A simple regression based on the historical relationship between the two suggests that the current pace of earnings growth is consistent with nominal GDP growth of 10%, see chart below.
The strong increase in corporate earnings and the resulting upside risk to GDP growth also point to upside risk to Friday’s employment report.
With strong earnings and upside risks to GDP growth and employment, the implication for investors is that interest rates will stay higher for longer, particularly when combined with the ongoing fiscal challenges.
Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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