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Macroeconomic Indicators & Trends
Torsten
Slok
April 11, 2026
Tech Valuations Back to Pre-AI Boom Levels
The chart below compares the forward P/E ratios for the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 Information Technology sector.
Tech valuations have compressed from 40x to 20x, and we are back at levels last seen before the AI boom began.
Note: The companies listed represent the 10 largest constituents in the S&P 500 Information Technology index by market capitalization: NVIDIA Corp, Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Broadcom Inc, Oracle Corp, Micron Technology Inc, Palantir Technologies Inc, Advanced Micro Devices Inc, Cisco Systems Inc, and Applied Materials Inc. Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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Macroeconomic Indicators & Trends
Torsten
Slok
April 10, 2026
Almost Half of American Households Have No Retirement Savings
Nearly half of working-age Americans don’t have a retirement account, with the shortfall most acute among younger, less-educated and lower-income workers, see chart below and here.
Sources: AARP, Apollo Chief Economist
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Ground beef prices are rising, see chart below. The US cattle herd remains historically tight because of years of drought and high feed costs, and this has kept slaughter availability constrained and pushed live cattle costs higher. Resilient consumer demand and elevated feed, labor and energy costs are reinforcing the move at retail.
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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Macroeconomic Indicators & Trends
Torsten
Slok
April 08, 2026
Higher Tax Refunds Positive for Consumer Spending
We are in the middle of tax filing season, and the latest weekly data from the Treasury shows that refunds for households are currently running at a rate that is 14% higher than last year, see chart below.
Sources: US Treasury, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
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Financial Markets & Risk Dynamics
Torsten
Slok
April 07, 2026
US Insurers Have Very Small Exposure to Levered Lending
The chart below shows exposure to below investment grade bank loans across a representative sample of US insurers.
The average is 1%.
The bottom line is that sub-investment grade levered lending is a very small part of the balance sheet for the US insurance industry.
Note: Data as of December 31, 2024, or December 31, 2025, based on latest available. Above insurers constitute a representative sample of US market participants. Represents unaffiliated and affiliated below investment grade bank loans (rated NAIC 3 and lower) in US statutory entities (from Schedule D statutory investment schedule), as aggregated by SNL financial, divided by total general account US statutory assets (from US statutory summary balance sheet). Excludes assets outside US statutory entities (e.g., asset in international entities). The data in this page is pulled from the publicly available S&P Market Intelligence SNL Insurance Regulatory Data dataset.
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Financial Markets & Risk Dynamics
Torsten
Slok
April 06, 2026
Understanding the Rise and Recent Fall in Gold Prices
Our chart book (available here) looks at why gold prices have increased so much since 2022, and why they have declined more recently.
Reasons why gold prices started going up in 2022:
- Central bank buying driven by de-dollarization because of sanctions when Russia
invaded Ukraine - Worries about US inflation
- Strong retail demand in India and China accelerated the upward trend
Likely reason why gold prices have declined recently:
- Investors needed liquidity as they experienced losses elsewhere in their portfolios
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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Financial Markets & Risk Dynamics
Torsten
Slok
April 05, 2026
Outlook for Public and Private Markets
Our latest outlook for public and private markets is available here.
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With the proliferation of cashless payments, you would expect the number of bills in circulation to be declining across all denominations. That is indeed the case for $20 bills, see charts below. But the number of $100 bills in circulation keeps rising.
Sources: Federal Reserve Board – Currency in Circulation: Volume, Apollo Chief Economist
Sources: Federal Reserve Board – Currency in Circulation: Volume, Apollo Chief Economist
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The direct lending market is roughly $2 trillion, or about 3% of total debt outstanding for US households and businesses.
By comparison, mortgages accounted for about 60% of total household and corporate debt at the peak of the housing bubble in 2006.
Sources: Preqin, FRB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
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Macroeconomic Indicators & Trends
Torsten
Slok
April 02, 2026
Factors Driving Job Losses in Software
In recent years, employment in the software sector has declined by about 200,000 jobs. The factors driving this decline could include AI, Fed hikes or immigration restrictions, see the first chart below.
Either way, the 200,000 decline in software employment should be compared with the 63 million people who find a new job each year, the 38 million who voluntarily quit their jobs and the 21 million who are laid off, see the second chart below.
The bottom line is that, regardless of what is driving the decline in software employment, it remains insignificant compared to the broader churn in the labor market.
Note: Includes software publishers, computer system design and related services, and data processing, hosting and related services. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Note: Data as of 2025. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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