Macroeconomic Indicators & Trends

May 17, 2026

Why G7 Government Bond Yields Are at Their Highest Levels Since 2004

About the Author
avatar
Torsten Slok

Partner, Chief Economist

Share

The chart below shows that G7 government bond yields have surged to their highest levels in more than 20 years, driven by:

1) renewed inflationary pressure from elevated energy prices as the Middle East conflict disrupts global oil supply,

2) persistently large government deficits requiring ever-increasing bond issuance,

3) the end of central bank quantitative easing with the Fed balance sheet potentially shrinking, and

4) investors demanding higher term premiums and inflation premiums amid deglobalization and increased geopolitical fragmentation.

With no clear resolution in sight on any of these fronts, the era of artificially suppressed yields appears firmly behind us.

In short, rates will stay higher for longer, and investors should plan accordingly.

Download high-res chart


This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others in whole or in part without the express consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).

Apollo makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the statements made during this presentation, including, but not limited to, statements obtained from third parties. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the speaker as of the date indicated. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update this presentation to account for such changes. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed during this presentation will continue.

Statements made throughout this presentation are not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice and do not constitute an investment recommendation or investment advice. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information discussed during this presentation, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, product or service, including interest in any investment product or fund or account managed or advised by Apollo.

Certain statements made throughout this presentation may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.