Macroeconomic Indicators & Trends

September 01, 2026

US Housing Outlook: 10 Facts

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Torsten Slok

Partner, Chief Economist

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We have updated our 127-page US housing outlook, available here.

There are 10 conclusions:

  1. High mortgage rates at 6.7% combined with a median home price of $400,000 are holding down traffic of prospective homebuyers, see the first chart.
  2. 75% of US households can only afford a home priced below $300,000, well under the current median sales price, see the second chart.
  3. The share of first-time homebuyers is at the lowest level in decades, and the median first-time buyer is now 40 years old, up from 30 in 2008, see the third chart.
  4. Nobody is moving. The structural decline in the share of the US population changing address continues, and the share of households planning to move over the next 12 months has fallen to a record low of approximately 7%, see the fourth chart.
  5. Household formation has slowed sharply as immigration has declined, removing a key source of underlying housing demand, see the fifth chart.
  6. The typical American home is now 42 years old, and we are not building fast enough to replace the aging stock, see the sixth chart.
  7. US homes are getting smaller, with the median size of new single-family homes declining over the past decade as builders chase the price points buyers can still reach, see the seventh chart.
  8. House price inflation has stalled near 1% overall, but it is turning higher again for the most expensive homes, where buyers are least dependent on mortgage financing, see the eighth chart.
  9. Households' equity in real estate totals $35 trillion, an average of roughly $400,000 per owner-occupied home, see the ninth chart.
  10. Delinquency rates on multifamily housing have climbed above their post-GFC peak to the highest level since at least 2004, see the tenth chart.
This chart shows the traffic of prospective home buyers
10 pages

Sources: National Association of Home Builders, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist

This chart shows that 75% of US households can only afford homes below $300k.
10 pages

Note: Chart shows household distribution by maximum affordable home price, using ACS PUMS (2024) data. Household incomes are standardized to survey-year dollars, so they are comparable across 2024. Negative incomes are treated as zero. Affordability is based on a 30-year mortgage rate of 6.5% with 10% down payment. Housing costs are capped at 28% of income, including taxes, insurance and private mortgage insurance (PMI). Sources: Apollo Chief Economist

This chart shows that the share of first-time homebuyers is declining.
10 pages

Sources: National Association of Realtors, Apollo Chief Economist

Structural decline in the share of the US population moving to a new address.
10 pages

Source: Census CPS, Apollo Chief Economist

This chart shows that household formation is slowing down because of lower immigration.
10 pages

Note: Household formation estimates for 2026 and 2027 are based on projected natural population growth and legal immigration from CBO's The Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056 (January 2026). We assume unauthorized immigration drops to zero under potential Trump policy scenario. To reflect this, we use natural population growth plus 65% total net migration — based on CBO estimates and the Migration Policy Institute's estimate of a 0.9 million rise in unauthorized immigrants in 2023 — divided by the average US household size of 2.6. 2025 and prior are Bloomberg actuals. Sources: Bloomberg (USHRFORM Index), Congressional Budget Office, Apollo Chief Economist

This chart shows that the typical American home is 42 years old and getting older.
10 pages

Sources: 2005-2019, 2021-2023 American Community Survey Estimates, Apollo Chief Economist

This chart shows that US homes are getting smaller, and the median size of new single-family homes is declining.
10 pages

Sources: US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist

This chart shows the house price inflation across price tiers.
10 pages

Sources: American Enterprise Institute, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist

This chart shows that households’ equity in real estate is around $35 trillion, or roughly $400,000 per owner-occupied home.
10 pages

Sources: Federal Reserve, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist

This chart shows that the delinquency rate on multifamily housing is high.
10 pages

Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist

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