Explore our investment strategies, solutions, and products designed to support diverse financial goals.
Tools and training for advisors, offering portfolio guidance, and on-demand educational resources.
Discover Apollo’s latest perspectives, case studies, research and analysis shaping conversations about private markets.
Private equity is entering a new phase where operational value creation, scale, and disciplined underwriting are key drivers of return.
Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok outlines the key macro dynamics shaping the landscape, from the AI boom to the industrial renaissance and policy.
Learn about our firm, our purpose and values, our people and where we are around the world.
August 09, 2026
Partner, Chief Economist
The S&P 493 is spending heavily on AI. But it is not showing up in profit margins, see the first chart below.
Looking at the individual sectors of the S&P 500 outside tech shows that the picture is flat, cyclical or worse, see charts 2, 3 and 4.
Health care margins have halved since 2015; consumer staples are stuck near 6% and consumer discretionary near 8%; energy and materials have given back most of their 2022-23 gains; real estate is going sideways; and the only genuine improvements look like an ordinary cyclical recovery rather than a technology-driven step change.
The bottom line is that the AI capex boom is so far only showing up in the sellers' margins, not the buyers'.
This is important because the longer it takes the S&P 493 to generate ROI, the bigger the downside risks to an economy and a market this concentrated in the AI trade.
For more, see here.
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Tell us your role for a more relevant Apollo.com experience.
This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others in whole or in part without the express consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).
Apollo makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the statements made during this presentation, including, but not limited to, statements obtained from third parties. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the speaker as of the date indicated. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update this presentation to account for such changes. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed during this presentation will continue.
Statements made throughout this presentation are not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice and do not constitute an investment recommendation or investment advice. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information discussed during this presentation, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, product or service, including interest in any investment product or fund or account managed or advised by Apollo.
Certain statements made throughout this presentation may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.
Social
Explore Apollo
More Information
© Apollo Global Management, Inc. 2025 All Rights Reserved.
