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November 04, 2026
Partner, Chief Economist
Since the conflict began, Iran has seen inflation near 90%, a collapsing currency and oil exports falling to essentially zero.
Inflation is at 90%. Iranian consumer price inflation has surged to roughly 90% YoY, well above the previous peaks of around 50% seen in 2019-20 and 2022. Inflation had already been climbing before the conflict, but the pace of acceleration has increased sharply since it began.
The rial exchange rate is in free fall. On the open market, the rial has weakened to nearly 3 million per US dollar. The currency spent most of the last decade trending gradually lower, but the move has turned near-vertical since the conflict began. A weaker rial raises the cost of imports, which feeds directly into the inflation seen in the first chart.
Oil exports have collapsed. Crude exports, Iran’s main source of foreign currency, have fallen from roughly 1.8 million barrels per day to essentially zero. Iran has been through a similar episode before when exports dropped from over 2.5 million b/d in 2018 to very low levels through 2019-21 under sanctions, and only recovered gradually afterward. This time the fall is steeper and faster.
The bottom line is that the three charts are connected. Lost oil revenue means fewer dollars flowing into the country, which pushes the rial lower, which in turn drives import prices and inflation higher. Together, these charts point to severe stress on Iran’s economy, and this negative feedback loop continues for as long as exports remain shut in.
Sources: International Monetary Fund (IMF), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Sources: Bonbast, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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