Financial Markets & Risk Dynamics

September 21, 2026

Hyperscaler Credit Rests on One Consensus Assumption

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Torsten Slok

Partner, Chief Economist

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The credit story in hyperscalers rests on a single consensus assumption, that operating cash flow triples from $600 billion to $2 trillion, see chart below.

If this doesn't happen, then the risk is that the AI trade weakens, with credit spreads widening, capex plans getting cut and ultimately US GDP growth slowing.

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