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July 28, 2026
Partner, Chief Economist
Over the past month, the consensus has revised up operating cash flow expectations for hyperscalers over the next five years, see the first chart.
However, capex expectations have been revised up even more sharply, see the second chart.
As a result, the consensus now expects free cash flow to be materially lower over the same period, see the third chart.
The bottom line is that the consensus has over the past month meaningfully increased its near-term hyperscaler capex forecast, reducing expected free cash flow despite stronger operating cash flow forecasts.
For investors, the key question remains the speed with which these capex investments will translate into proportional revenue or profit growth, see also here.
Note: Data as of July 27, 2026. Hyperscalers include Google, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft. Sources: FactSet, Apollo Chief Economist
Note: Data as of July 27, 2026. Hyperscalers include Google, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft. Sources: FactSet, Apollo Chief Economist
Note: Data as of July 27, 2026. Hyperscalers include Google, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft. Sources: FactSet, Apollo Chief Economist
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