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October 17, 2026
Partner, Chief Economist
Duration measures how sensitive a bond’s price is to changes in interest rates, and for the 30-year Treasury, it has fallen from 25 years in 2020 to 14 today because of higher yields and higher coupons.
That means long Treasuries offer less cushion per dollar in a downturn.
As a result, investors may need to own more fixed income to hedge against the risk of a slowdown. Pairing Treasuries with high-quality credit can help.
Investment-grade private placements and infrastructure debt are often long-dated and fixed-rate, so they can carry meaningful duration, while asset-backed finance can add income, with duration varying by structure.
The bottom line is that when interest rates stay higher for longer, lower duration weakens the hedge that long Treasuries provide.
Sources: ICE BofAML, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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