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October 02, 2026
Partner, Chief Economist
Breakeven job growth has collapsed from 200,000 per month to close to zero today, driven by a sharp drop in immigration shrinking labor force growth and continued baby boomer retirements pulling down participation. That means the consensus expectation of 90,000 jobs created in September is not a soft print but a solid one, comfortably above breakeven and consistent with a strong economy and a falling unemployment rate.
The bottom line is that with a strong labor market and inflation still significantly above the Fed's 2% target, rates will continue to stay higher for longer.
Note: Range estimates use the midpoint; Dallas Fed shows its 2023 peak of ~250k jobs/month. “Latest” reflects the most recent published estimates. Sources: Federal Reserve Board, St. Louis Fed, Brookings, Dallas Fed, Apollo Chief Economist
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