August 19, 2026

As the Fed funds rate climbed from near zero in 2021 to above 5% in 2024, the number of new paper bills the government ordered printed each year fell from roughly 7.6 billion to about 4.4 billion, reflecting weaker demand for physical cash when holding it means giving up more interest income, see chart below.

August 18, 2026

A portfolio can appear diversified across sectors and asset classes and still be exposed to the same underlying factor: AI. Hyperscalers represented just 2.7% of the US investment grade index in July 2025. Today they represent 4.8%, and we estimate that share could approach 10% by 2030 as borrowing to fund the AI buildout accelerates (see chart below). Historically, sectors such as technology, utilities and real estate were driven by different fundamentals, while IG, high yield and equities often behaved differently during periods of stress. Today, AI is increasingly linking those exposures. That makes true diversification more valuable and requires investors to be more intentional about finding it. We believe European private credit, sports-related financing and hybrid credit are areas whose returns are driven by different economic forces and can help diversify portfolios away from a growing common AI factor. Read more in our 2026 Midyear Credit Outlook.

August 17, 2026

AI agents are increasingly being used to search, compare and book travel. But employment in travel agencies has been steady at around 75,000 since early 2023, another data point suggesting the AI-driven labor market disruption is still not visible in the hard data.